Phximiev said:
Despite the naysayers, the hydrogen folks are pressing forward: http://electriccarsreport.com/2016/06/europe-prepares-expand-hydrogen-refuelling-infrastructure-network-vehicle-fleet/
As a cynic on all levels until I see the concrete evidence, it is good to see Europe adopting a multilateral approach to the future of road propulsion. After all the people (about 50%) that knock the I-MIEV classing it as a 'toy' compared to their 200 HP car when they quiz me about it, it does follow through that the only way to move away from ICE is very gradually with a long lag phase, a multilateral approach that gives people the choice.
I.e a combination of Hydrogen, full EV, hybrid, PHEV, and ICE.
There is going to be a critical mass upon which point the R &D and production costs of EV fall (we are seeing that already), and then the gradual increase of production of ICE as the economies of scale get diluted - but that is going to take ages, though the people that pull the levers have been fully aware of this for a few years - even if those that drive them can afford to remain ignorant.
You cant educate people that aren't interested, but normally, for the average person, money saved is the driver. So until there is good enough choice and affordability, it wouldn't be a policy option to price people out of ICE for a good while. Even then there would be people fight to the bitter end, and there is a future for ICE for a long time. The only model I see is one where ICE subsidies that uptake to zero and very low emission, whether they like it or not. For no other reason than having cleaner air, I would really like to see that.
We all credit Tesla and the likes of Nissan for popularising the EV, but in my opinion Toyota have had the largest impact. Go back about 10 years and it was the initial move to hybrids that got all of this going, and anecdotally - I would have thought it was the hybrid club that most strongly correlate to the emergent EV club. I remember people laughing at the first Prius when they said it was part-powered like batteries - and the failures have been very small when considering the broadness of their roll-out. They certainly don't laugh anymore - and in fact they only laughed to begin with as a defence mechanism that they were too dumb or otherwise impaired to jump on the bandwagon.
Even as EVers, we are still not addressing the largest problem with road transport, and that is the driver. Clearly, the ultimate iteration has to be an autonomous fleet, which will be the ultimate mass transport system. I wonder how many of us would willingly give up that aspect of liberty for the obvious greater good - not sure I am there yet, but it is interesting, and I cant see why it wont definitely happen. Non-autonomous vehicles and all the old V8 sports cars can be used on specially designated areas. Road space, especially in cities, will be too valuable for moving people to work in.
In fact, I have been wondering if my 1 year old daughter will ever drive period. Most likely never a manual gear shift, or a diesel in London in future - it's just too dirty or antiquated for the type of roads we now have. Possibly not even a gasoline car if the alternative roll out gains enough traction. That will be interesting to watch.
