Oil production reductions

[PV1]

So, so it over-supply or demand destruction (or both) that is shaking everything up?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/critical-mass-of-oil-producing-countries-agree-to-freeze-output/ar-BBqeVhw?li=BBnb7Kz

By my calculations, EVs in the U.S. are reducing demand by 500,000 gallons of gas daily, which works out to more than 26,000 barrels of oil daily per data from iea.gov. There is currently an over supply of 1 million barrels of oil per day.

(My data consists of 400,000 EVs each traveling 40 miles per day, and each EV replacing a gasoline car achieving 30 MPG average. U.S. EV count provided by pluginamerica.org. Per the IEA, each barrel of crude oil nets 12 gallons of diesel fuel and 19 gallons of gasoline.)

 

[databeestje]

There is a bit of a "who will blink first" problem here, and it will probably sort itself out in due course.

It's not just the US, the governments from a few EU countries as well as the US are providing compelling incentives, and soon also emissions regulations and restrictions that will force the issue of adoption at some point. That point could be closer by then we care to admit, and the effect might not even be gradual.

It's like solar panels in the Netherlands, it's standing still for years, and suddenly the incentive is just so good that people get over it and install 4kW for ±6000 euros. Something similar to that is also happening in Germany currently. They installed so much solar that the incentive was cut by quite a bit, and instead of a gradual decline the amount of newly installed power dropped off a cliff basically overnight.

The solar installer industry in Germany was basically in shambles overnight, all because of a 3 cent per kWh reduction. It's sometimes hard to predict adoption rates.

 

[JoeS]

... and soon also emissions regulations and restrictions that will force the issue of adoption at some point. ...

A universal Carbon Tax is another approach to leveling the playing field. http://www.carbontax.org