Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

[dniemeyer99]

I am not sure I totally agree that the battery is 50% of the cost of the car any more. The cost of batteries have been going down a lot lately and battery manufactures are investing big in new production. In fact, we will see 12 new giga factories in the world like the one in Nevada being build by Tesla. These new factories are to meet the future needs of the EV world.

I believe it is the car manufactures that are keeping the prices high until regulation (Café standard) force them. They know the transition is coming so they are preparing for it but they are not going to hurry it on. The problem with this is that with climate change, we need leadership from more than one car company other than Tesla.

Dave

 

[Phximiev]

Some efforts hopefully in time: https://thinkprogress.org/california-climate-bill-becomes-law-ba59b681d764#.c62o47ywj

 

[PV1]

Hmm...

https://thinkprogress.org/satellites-confirm-global-warming-ce6d636c469f#.wjctuf263

 

[NeilBlanchard]

The timing I am seeing is we have ~8 years to stop using ALL fossil fuels - to avoid >2C warming.

And that may well be too optimistic.

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/

 

[Don]

Sadly, thinks are unfolding pretty much as Carl Sagan warned us they would back in the 1980's

https://climatecrocks.com/2011/09/05/carl-sagan-on-global-warming/

Nearly everyone understands it to be fact today . . . . except for the majority of those in Washington who write our laws - Many of them can't see much farther than the end of their noses and only vote for what's best for them, and only in the very short term

What can we do? It's pretty much all our faults - We sent them up there and even though we can plainly see they're not doing the right thing much of the time, we keep re-electing them . . . .

Don

 

[Phximiev]

The pessimistic view: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/09/14/what-the-sixth-extinction-will-look-like-in-the-oceans-the-largest-species-die-off-first/?tid=pm_business_pop_b&utm_term=.9b0c23fd285a

 

[phb10186]

Sadly, thinks are unfolding pretty much as Carl Sagan warned us they would back in the 1980's

https://climatecrocks.com/2011/09/05/carl-sagan-on-global-warming/

Nearly everyone understands it to be fact today . . . . except for the majority of those in Washington who write our laws - Many of them can't see much farther than the end of their noses and only vote for what's best for them, and only in the very short term

What can we do? It's pretty much all our faults - We sent them up there and even though we can plainly see they're not doing the right thing much of the time, we keep re-electing them . . . .

Don

It can only be dealt with by a global effort. The Chinese have no interest whatsoever, the US have been dragging their feet for far too long, small countries like the UK can put forward a loud voice (going to be smaller soon when we leave the EU, and we are pretty bad at seeing things through like everyone else), but governments can sign up to whatever they want, but ultimately the public has to be able to afford the change, and the infrastructure needed to accomplish it has to be there. Most of the world can't afford that, so its up to those that can to make headway. Are we doing that - not in any way close to what's needed to create the momentum.

Credit to GM and BMW (and Tesla) - at least the new 200 mile plus ranges we now see are going to help people switch - but the costs are simply too high still. Batteries are much less costly than before, but the prices dont seem to reflect that fall always.

To make a real difference, the changes we face would influence all areas of life, and that comes at a time of rising living costs and lowering wages - it's not a great position to be in.

Under our political setups, it all takes far too long, and is too easily derailed, and there are too many greedy business fingers in the pie.

 

[JoeS]

Climate Change, Explained in One Simple Graph (with a touch of humor):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696

 

[wmcbrine]

Climate Change, Explained in One Simple Graph (with a touch of humor):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-xkcd-comic-20696

A pinch of humor, a pound of horror.

 

[NeilBlanchard]

I am glad to hear that some news outlets are starting to report specifically on climate change:

http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/09/19/climate-change-physicist

 

[dniemeyer99]

For what is it worth, another view of our future in 30 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6ag3b1WCYc

Dave

 

[JoeS]

For what is it worth, another view of our future in 30 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6ag3b1WCYc
Dave

Thank you. Good presentation. I was surprised that nuclear is not viable - 'simply' due to cost, as it can't compete with renewables now being installed which produce at 2¢/kWh (unsubsidized).

 

[PV1]

Lots of good info in just the first 20 minutes.

Amazing how cheap solar and wind have become in just the last few years. Hopefully they don't get tossed aside in Trump's plan to revive what's left of the coal industry while removing the restrictions on oil/gas development here in PA. He was in town yesterday talking about energy, but I only caught snippets of it (I didn't like what I did hear, though. Shale development is already getting a free ride in PA :evil: ).

 

[PV1]

The latest publications are saying that CCS (Carbon Capture & Sequestration) will be necessary to meet the temperature targets.

http://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-warnings-propaganda/

For having first passed the 400 ppm mark in March of 2013, this year looks to be the first year spent ENTIRELY above 400 ppm with no signs of slowing down (the rate of increase is actually still climbing).

My pre-emptive observation rings true:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-passes-400-ppm-threshold-permanently-20738

 

[Don]

Ahhh, carbon capture! We've been hearing about that down here for years and years . . . . none 'captured' as yet though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemper_Project

Nuclear no longer viable for cost reasons? "According to a Sierra Club analysis, Kemper is the most expensive power plant ever built for the watts of electricity it will generate."

The Wikipedia article is a bit out of date - Just last week they announced yet another start-up delay and cost increase - Now $6.9B for a project that was estimated to cost $2.2B

Many lawsuits over this. Some Mississippi Power customers have been paying 20% more for their power now for several years to offset the cost of this white elephant and the funny part of that is . . . . none of the power it generates (assuming it does one day) will be used by most of those currently footing the bill

Don

 

[PV1]

I read through the environmental reports of both Apple and Dell. While Apple is doing the most to eliminate harmful substances in their devices, Dell is starting to use a product called Air Carbon, LDPE plastic made from air-sourced Carbon. It sounds very interesting (certainly more so than an ethane cracker plant. Looking at you, Shell) and could be a carbon sink while simultaneously reducing oil consumption. We need a lifecycle analysis to determine that, though.

Dell is starting to push hard towards a circular economy, where materials from old PCs are used to make new ones (fancy way of saying recycling), something we need a lot more of. Apple is taking a similar approach with their Liam robot, which disassembles old iPhones and allows reuse of materials such as screws in their new phones.

I've always been under the impression that reforestation is the best CCS method.

 

[Phximiev]

Its a start and hopefully not a bandaid.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/10/08/germanys-bundesrat-resolves-end-of-internal-combustion-engine/?partner=yahootix&utm_content=buffer9d4c1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer#47e15a931d95

 

[Phximiev]

Reality and the pessimistic view?

http://www.vox.com/2016/10/4/13118594/2-degrees-no-more-fossil-fuels

 

[PV1]

There is this:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-paris-agreement-to-enter-into-force

But it won't be enough.

This year's CO2 cycle pretty much bottomed out at 401 ppm, and it seemed to have leveled off sooner than last year. As for negative emissions, the only way I see that we'll have a chance is to return a LOT of land back to greenspace and grow something fast like Bamboo on it. But, for that to happen, new development needs to stop on top of a rapid fossil shutdown.

 

[Phximiev]

More optimism on hydrail trains: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/09/alstom-unveils-hydrogen-fuel-cell-regional-train-coradia-ilint.html

and: http://www.hydrogencarsnow.com/index.php/hydrogen-economy/hydrails-golden-spike-moment-berlin-2016/

One electric hydrail train is equivalent to how many electric cars?

The same argument applies to buses, ships, large municipal vehicles, etc.