Thanks JoeS - and many good points here, particularly that there are relatively few one-car households. Then again....
JoeS said:
Funniest reaction I've had was when talking with a good friend who owns a Saab and who a few years ago had splurged on a Lexus hybrid SUV for his wife, when I pointed out that for the rare occasion he needs to exceed the BEV range he could simply take that SUV - his wife piped up and allowed as that would be over her dead body!
Ouch. No accounting for family dynamics, but yeah, that couple's dysfunction makes your Saab owner a fleet of one, and not a good BEV candidate. This does reinforce my prejudice about Lexus hybrid owners, though - not so green in fact as the image they like to project. Not confusing them with drivers of hybrid Chevy Suburbans, but still.
JoeS said:
Many a lively talk over the dinner table with (innumerate) friends has ended with "Yes, we just did the math and, whereas you've just shown me that our family could easily live with one of our cars being a 100% electric vehicle, I ain't going to do it because I'm not comfortable with the concept of owning a car that is able to only go 60 miles (100km)."
I still don't get this. My theory is that the range-limited EV doesn't support the American "open road" fantasy - the idea that you can just head off into the sunset with gas money in your pocket and drive 'til you hit ocean. Of course, approximately none of us ever do that - but the ICE car's ability to just trundle along with a couple of stops a day to slurp in some petro-feed is at the heart of that fantasy, and perhaps that's just emotionally too hard to give up.
JoeS said:
Our ridiculously-low operating cost arguments don't seem to have much influence, as the crowd that purchases new vehicles is already accommodating the existing ICE operating costs.
Perhaps, but I think there's a broad tendency to downplay the magnitude of the savings, either by overestimating electricity costs or glossing over fuel and maintenance costs. I think there's a major hangover from the hybrid experience. Nothing but the Prius ever came close to justifying its purchase price in terms of fuel dollars saved, especially as ICE fuel economy has become the focus of recent engineering improvements. Of course, hybrids are at least as expensive to maintain, if not more so (ask anyone who's had to replace a Prius auxiliary battery). For some reason, folks just assume that EV-related savings will prove to be just as elusive, but there's no good reason for this. Unless one lives someplace where electricity is particularly dear, you're gonna whack 2/3 off your fuel cost alone, likely more. Maintenance, as we know, is something of a pleasant joke.
I'll acknowledge that the whole battery longevity thing is a major unknown, and for the few people paying close attention to facts, Nissan's handling of their cooked batteries in Arizona has not been confidence-inspiring (last I heard they're sort of doing the right things, but only after generating months of bad PR). And because what this really comes down to is less range in later years than in year 1 of ownership, we're right back to range again. The less range you truly need, the longer you can plan on keeping your BEV as its range gradually declines.
JoeS said:
Vike, to further support your argument, I'm finding that, with the increasing popularity of PHEVs, access to the public charging infrastructure is becoming unreliable, and I now find myself rarely venturing outside my "range" unless I'm visiting friends and know I can plug into their garage (usually dryer) outlets...
I've monitored discussions of this, and even allowing for my bias as a BEV owner, I cannot fathom why PHEV drivers think it's ok to tie up a public charger, potentially blocking BEVs, when they don't need them to get home.
I'm afraid the situation argues against free charge points, since I think most payment schemes would sort things out naturally (any fee worth collecting would probably cost a Volt owner more than just paying for gasoline, so why bother?). Otherwise, PHEVs could easily destroy the value of public chargers, taking their few sips of free juice from the line, then sitting there like a dog in a manger. There's already ample evidence that goodwill alone isn't getting the job done. So you're right - unless something is done soon to better prioritize access, PHEVs may crowd BEVs out of the public charge points, effectively neutralizing the very infrastructure that would make BEVs more broadly viable. In that scenario, far from being a technology "bridge" to BEVs, PHEVs might actually help smother them in the cradle. I'd never thought of that. Yikes.
