JoeS
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Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:47 pm

mlab wrote:I'm interested in buying a used i-Miev or Smart and I'm wondering how prices are going to change in the next 2 to 3 years....If I get into EVs now, and start saving fuel...How do you think the market prices for EVs are going to change in the next 3 years?
This thread got a little off-topic, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents' worth.

If the range of an i-MiEV or SmartED works for you, by all means buy an inexpensive one now. Although used prices for the i-MiEV seem to have crawled upwards a bit, in a few years there will be lots more used EVs available and market pressures will probably push down prices, but in the meantime you will experience the EV grin and become comfortable living with an EV. With the EV's low a purchase price and ridiculously low operating costs, an ICE vehicle poses no competition. If the Smart works for you that means you don't need DCQC and thus you should be able to pick up an i-MiEV without CHAdeMO for around $5K. Naturally, we consider the i-MiEV far superior to the Smart, if for no other reason than because its interior is voluminous and thus it makes a great workhorse.
EVs: 2 Wht/Blu SE Prem., '13 Tesla MS85, 3 156v CorbinSparrows (2 Li-ion), 24v EcoScoot(LiFePO4)
EV Conv: 156v '86 Ram PU, 144v '65 Saab 96
Hybrids: 48v1kW bike
ICE: '88 Isuzu Trooper. Mothballed: '67 Saab (orig.owner), '76 MBZ L206D RHD RV

wmcbrine
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Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:17 pm

Aerowhatt wrote:It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline.

Eh, $1000 sounds about right to me. Average driving is said to be 10,000-15,000 miles a year... let's assume 10,000 for simplicity. A typical ICE car gets 25 MPG -- that's 400 gallons/year. And the price of gasoline is hovering around $2.50/gallon, last I looked -- $2.50 * 400 = $1000.

Aerowhatt
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Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:39 pm

wmcbrine wrote:
Aerowhatt wrote:It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline.

Eh, $1000 sounds about right to me. Average driving is said to be 10,000-15,000 miles a year... let's assume 10,000 for simplicity. A typical ICE car gets 25 MPG -- that's 400 gallons/year. And the price of gasoline is hovering around $2.50/gallon, last I looked -- $2.50 * 400 = $1000.


Or we could assume 15,000 per year ("for simplicity") -- that's 600 gallons per year $2.50 *600 = $1,500. My point was . . . you have to do your math for your situation. I run into people weekly, asking about my electric car. One of the questions is "what does it cost to drive". I've literally spoken to dozens of people who drive the national average of ~15,000 miles a year in an SUV getting 12mpg to 17 mpg. With a precious few exceptions, none of them thought they spent more than $1000.00 per year on gasoline. 15,000miles/17 miles per gallon * $2.50 per gallon = $2,205.88 annual fuel expense. The simple (rough) answer for them is that, whatever they spend now can be divided by 5 if they choose an EV. That would be an EV of equal utility to their current vehicle (if it exists).

Aerowhatt
2014 cool silver ES, acquired new 4/2015 (42.7ah at ~26K miles)
2014 Labrador Black Pearl ES, acquired new 3/2016 (41.5ah at ~15k miles)

phb10186
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Location: North London suburbs, UK

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:02 pm

Aerowhatt wrote:
wmcbrine wrote:
Aerowhatt wrote:It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline.

Eh, $1000 sounds about right to me. Average driving is said to be 10,000-15,000 miles a year... let's assume 10,000 for simplicity. A typical ICE car gets 25 MPG -- that's 400 gallons/year. And the price of gasoline is hovering around $2.50/gallon, last I looked -- $2.50 * 400 = $1000.


Or we could assume 15,000 per year ("for simplicity") -- that's 600 gallons per year $2.50 *600 = $1,500. My point was . . . you have to do your math for your situation. I run into people weekly, asking about my electric car. One of the questions is "what does it cost to drive". I've literally spoken to dozens of people who drive the national average of ~15,000 miles a year in an SUV getting 12mpg to 17 mpg. With a precious few exceptions, none of them thought they spent more than $1000.00 per year on gasoline. 15,000miles/17 miles per gallon * $2.50 per gallon = $2,205.88 annual fuel expense. The simple (rough) answer for them is that, whatever they spend now can be divided by 5 if they choose an EV. That would be an EV of equal utility to their current vehicle (if it exists).

Aerowhatt


Which would cost me $5733 in the UK (vs about $500 for electric), as gas is about $6.50 a gallon now - and I too have spoken to dozens of people, and though they are amazed at how much they spend on gas, there seems to be an acceptance/ normalisation that that level of gas expenditure is still worth shelling out for (or they are missing something, or they are purely buying for image). Or, as I learn more and more - people have significant adversities to any deviation from what they interpret as 'normal'.

Since I changed our RAV 4 for an Insight, and my Celica for the Imiev, I think where we used to use about 15 gallons a week, we now use about 4 or less.

So in fact the Imiev pays for itself extremely quickly - for me based on what I paid, about 4 years until it is free.
2012 I-MIEV Keiko Silver 16K
2010 Insight ES-T 43K
2001 Accord Type-V (F23 manual)
2009 Hornet CB600F
2008 SH300

mlab
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Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:39 pm
Location: Quebec, Canada

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:13 am

phb10186 wrote:New EV demand is pretty strong now, and the rate limiting step is still in battery production, hence supply is behind demand, and new prices will remain higher for the foreseeable future compared to ICE - and I don't see a lot of change over the next 3 years - which should strengthen used EV prices if nothing else.. Pure ICE vehicles are already experiencing static or falling sales compared with PHEVs, Hybrids and Evs, which are all seeing growing sales. As far as high fuel tax markets go (specifically I reference Europe in comparison to the US here), diesel sales are particularly badly hit, as the trend moves to gasoline, gasoline hybrid and EVs.

The high year 1 depreciation is probably due to the higher new cost, and a used market equivalence to ICE equivalents, making EVs a pretty good used by in my opinion.

In large cities, especially those in western Europe, the sheer scale of mild hybrid sales (Prius in particular) is clear to see, with far more PHEVs and EV coming through year on year.

So, in some markets where fuel costs less, the uptake may lag slightly, and I also notice smaller towns have far fewer alternative fuel vehicles (likely because people have less money, and can't afford them). However, as global battery production is still the main limiting factor, the production capacity will be directed to where demand is strongest, and the highest price can be commanded.

The switch from ICE to EV is more than just a fuel change, it requires a change of understanding about use and ownership of vehicles, where, I at least would suggest that an investment in an EV should be made based on a longer term of ownership. Also, the battery ownership and replacement models have not been completely worked out, as far as I can see, and a battery replacement (whoever is paying for it), remains a costly event - and that really needs to be solved in a smarter way.

All of those forces will effect new and used prices over the next few years, but I can't see the current trends lessening - EVs are here to stay now.

The other thing I would add, is that my observations in a city like London, are that I see most people buying a small EV as a 2nd car for local driving (which ends up being used for about 90%+ journeys) - and that practice does not require a particularly large range, when a conventional car can then be used when you need to cover a larger distance.


--- Very good points. Seems prices may not drop as much as I would like. Totally agree about this being similar to an "investment" based on long term ownership as well as being a second car. It's how they end up competing in price even with older, cheaper ICE used cars, through gas and maintenance savings.
Last edited by mlab on Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

mlab
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:39 pm
Location: Quebec, Canada

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:30 am

Don wrote:I think the 'better, cheaper battery' discount on the iMiEV happened between the 2012 model and the 2014 when the sticker price went down about $10K ...

There were many times more 2012's sold than all the later models put together, so waiting and trying to find a used 2014 a few years from now could prove futile. I think used iMiEV's will be much harder to find in 2 or 3 years, especially if you want one with lower miles - They're already harder to find now than they were a couple years ago. ...


Good to know, thanks.

mlab
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Location: Quebec, Canada

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:45 am

Aerowhatt wrote: It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline. People are always a bit amazed when they actually do an accurate accounting of gasoline expenditure. Fueleconomy.gov can help make it easier to figure what it does actually cost you annually.


- Actually did the math on this and the EV commutes would add up to 1000$. Would still own a gasoline car.


Aerowhatt wrote: I don't believe used EV's 3-4 years old or older will drop much more in price until the battery warranty periods on them is ended or ending. Personally I wouldn't buy one without that warranty in force for as long as I wanted to own the car.


- Would buy a 3-4 yr old car, but later. Wouldn't buy that same car when it's 5 or 6 years old and warranties are gone.

Aerowhatt wrote: On purely economic criteria you cannot loose, period. Our household with two iMievs as daily drivers (bought new at rock bottom prices) will save at least $34,000.00 in transportation expenses over 6 years of ownership. By replacing two fuel efficient ICE's with them (a Honda Fit and a Honda Civic). If you look beyond purely economic criteria it gets even better!


- My point exactly. Even replacing my old Civic (which gets better MPG than new ones) would save me a lot. However, I still think the Smart, i-Miev and LEAF are a bit overpriced where I live.

mlab
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Location: Quebec, Canada

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:50 am

JoeS wrote: Naturally, we consider the i-MiEV far superior to the Smart, if for no other reason than because its interior is voluminous and thus it makes a great workhorse.


Not to start a thread on this, but I am curious about how the two compare, in your opinion (apart from the DCQC, of course).

JoeS
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Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:08 pm

mlab wrote:
JoeS wrote: Naturally, we consider the i-MiEV far superior to the Smart, if for no other reason than because its interior is voluminous and thus it makes a great workhorse.
Not to start a thread on this, but I am curious about how the two compare, in your opinion (apart from the DCQC, of course).
We have many comments about other electric cars on this forum. One such thread is here (but also note the date of the post):
http://myimiev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=922&start=10#p14508

Here's another thread, specific to the SmartED:
http://myimiev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=2171

I like small cars and would consider an electric Smart if I lived in a big city that still had unmetered street parking whereby I could squeeze into odd places without getting a ticket.

Back to reality ... taking the approach that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, I suggest that getting any old inexpensive EV now is preferable to waiting for something 'better' down the road. The big depreciation hit has already been taken, so you won't lose too much even if you sell it in a couple of years.
EVs: 2 Wht/Blu SE Prem., '13 Tesla MS85, 3 156v CorbinSparrows (2 Li-ion), 24v EcoScoot(LiFePO4)
EV Conv: 156v '86 Ram PU, 144v '65 Saab 96
Hybrids: 48v1kW bike
ICE: '88 Isuzu Trooper. Mothballed: '67 Saab (orig.owner), '76 MBZ L206D RHD RV

Aerowhatt
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Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:34 am

mlab wrote:
Aerowhatt wrote: It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline. People are always a bit amazed when they actually do an accurate accounting of gasoline expenditure. Fueleconomy.gov can help make it easier to figure what it does actually cost you annually.


- Actually did the math on this and the EV commutes would add up to 1000$. Would still own a gasoline car.

Aerowhatt wrote: On purely economic criteria you cannot loose, period. Our household with two iMievs as daily drivers (bought new at rock bottom prices) will save at least $34,000.00 in transportation expenses over 6 years of ownership. By replacing two fuel efficient ICE's with them (a Honda Fit and a Honda Civic). If you look beyond purely economic criteria it gets even better!


- My point exactly. Even replacing my old Civic (which gets better MPG than new ones) would save me a lot. However, I still think the Smart, i-Miev and LEAF are a bit overpriced where I live.


OK I think I get it the $1000 on gasoline would be for only part of your total annual miles (the proposed EV commuting part). So you look to save $800.00 per year on fuel expense. Plus, guessing here, about two oil changes per year no longer needed and no annual radiator flush. That's another $50+ if you do them yourself or $150 - $200+ if you hire it done. So whatever the price of the EV is, you would need to subtract $1,700 to $2,000 to be comparing apples to apples over the proposed 2 year wait for a better deal. That money will be coming back to you in savings. Instead of to the mechanic and the fossil fuel industry. Plus there are the emission/pollution considerations. What are those worth?

I-Miev vs Smart. Their is no reasonable advantage to the Smart. Range, performance, safety all line up fairly even. The iMiev has lots of room inside. I've driven the smart ICE, it drives like a go kart. The wheel base is too short to have any stability at speed. The iMiev will fit in the smallest of parking spaces and maneuvers better in a parking lot than anything I have ever driven (lots of tiny sports cars included). We had family visit over the holiday and took four adults to the mountains for a hike and picnic in the iMiev. A trunk full of coats, supplies, spare tire, etc. Everyone was comfortable enough for a 45 minute drive each way. The Smart is so limiting, I don't really understand how a single one sold.

Aerowhatt
2014 cool silver ES, acquired new 4/2015 (42.7ah at ~26K miles)
2014 Labrador Black Pearl ES, acquired new 3/2016 (41.5ah at ~15k miles)

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