phb10186 wrote:New EV demand is pretty strong now, and the rate limiting step is still in battery production, hence supply is behind demand, and new prices will remain higher for the foreseeable future compared to ICE - and I don't see a lot of change over the next 3 years - which should strengthen used EV prices if nothing else.. Pure ICE vehicles are already experiencing static or falling sales compared with PHEVs, Hybrids and Evs, which are all seeing growing sales. As far as high fuel tax markets go (specifically I reference Europe in comparison to the US here), diesel sales are particularly badly hit, as the trend moves to gasoline, gasoline hybrid and EVs.
The high year 1 depreciation is probably due to the higher new cost, and a used market equivalence to ICE equivalents, making EVs a pretty good used by in my opinion.
In large cities, especially those in western Europe, the sheer scale of mild hybrid sales (Prius in particular) is clear to see, with far more PHEVs and EV coming through year on year.
So, in some markets where fuel costs less, the uptake may lag slightly, and I also notice smaller towns have far fewer alternative fuel vehicles (likely because people have less money, and can't afford them). However, as global battery production is still the main limiting factor, the production capacity will be directed to where demand is strongest, and the highest price can be commanded.
The switch from ICE to EV is more than just a fuel change, it requires a change of understanding about use and ownership of vehicles, where, I at least would suggest that an investment in an EV should be made based on a longer term of ownership. Also, the battery ownership and replacement models have not been completely worked out, as far as I can see, and a battery replacement (whoever is paying for it), remains a costly event - and that really needs to be solved in a smarter way.
All of those forces will effect new and used prices over the next few years, but I can't see the current trends lessening - EVs are here to stay now.
The other thing I would add, is that my observations in a city like London, are that I see most people buying a small EV as a 2nd car for local driving (which ends up being used for about 90%+ journeys) - and that practice does not require a particularly large range, when a conventional car can then be used when you need to cover a larger distance.
--- Very good points. Seems prices may not drop as much as I would like. Totally agree about this being similar to an "investment" based on long term ownership as well as being a second car. It's how they end up competing in price even with older, cheaper ICE used cars, through gas and maintenance savings.