mlab
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:39 pm
Location: Quebec, Canada

EV prices in the next 3 years.

Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:29 pm

Hi,

I'm interested in buying a used i-Miev or Smart and I'm wondering how prices are going to change in the next 2 to 3 years. As I understand it, up to 2/3 of the price on small cars like these is coming from the expensive battery. As car companies start producing their own batteries, or as battery suppliers get better equipped to manufacture huge quantities of better, cheaper battery technologies and Giga battery factories start being built around the world (Tesla in the US, Daimler in Germany, CATL in China), lithium-ion batteries are expected to drop in price (perhaps faster than the expected 7% annually) and that would have a huge effect on the price of both new and used cars.

Of course, there are other factors affecting used EV prices such as the number of lease returns, new offerings from new companies entering the market (most have promised to get in the game by 2020), ICE car prices, gas prices...

If I get into EVs now, and start saving fuel, I could be losing these savings to the higher price I'll pay.
Oversimplified example : I buy a 10 000$, 2012 i-Miev and save 2000$ in fuel over the next 2 years. Total spent : 8000$. OR, I wait 2 years and, MAYBE, can get a 2014 for 7000$. Total spent : 7000$.

How do you think the market prices for EVs are going to change in the next 3 years?

Don
Site Moderator
Posts: 2535
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 3:55 pm
Location: Biloxi MS

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:02 pm

I think the 'better, cheaper battery' discount on the iMiEV happened between the 2012 model and the 2014 when the sticker price went down about $10K

There are some great prices out there for used ones - I've seen them as low as $4500 to $5K with reasonable miles. I bought a 2012 SE Premium in pretty much brand new condition with less than 4,000 miles two years ago for $8700 which was a great deal, considering I bought a brand new lesser model in 2012 for right at $30K

There were many times more 2012's sold than all the later models put together, so waiting and trying to find a used 2014 a few years from now could prove futile. I think used iMiEV's will be much harder to find in 2 or 3 years, especially if you want one with lower miles - They're already harder to find now than they were a couple years ago. I would keep looking right now and not restrict your searches to 'local' cars - You might find a much better deal 500 or 1,000 miles away and save much more than it will cost you to ship the car. The used one I got the great deal on was 850 miles away and we went and picked it up ourselves with a pick-up and trailer

Personally, I think driving an EV is about much more than just 'saving fuel' - If I felt that way, there was no hope of ever breaking even buying a new one when I did and I don't regret my purchase at all. Come May, we've had that one 6 years and while it only has around 35,000 miles on it now, it has provided near 100% of our local transportation needs - We're still happier with it than most any other car we've ever owned . . . . which is why we jumped on a second one when we found a good deal

Don
2012 iMiEV SE Premium, White
2012 iMiEV SE, White
2014 Ford Transit Connect XLT SWB wagon, 14,000 miles
1994 Miata 60K miles - Soon to be sold
1979 Honda CBX six into six

Aerowhatt
Posts: 350
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:52 pm

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:24 am

mlab wrote:Oversimplified example : I buy a 10 000$, 2012 i-Miev and save 2000$ in fuel over the next 2 years. Total spent : 8000$. OR, I wait 2 years and, MAYBE, can get a 2014 for 7000$. Total spent : 7000$.

How do you think the market prices for EVs are going to change in the next 3 years?


Couple of points;

It's likely that you spend much more than $1,000 per year on gasoline. People are always a bit amazed when they actually do an accurate accounting of gasoline expenditure. Fueleconomy.gov can help make it easier to figure what it does actually cost you annually.

Cars (EV's included) have most of their depreciation on the front end of their life. EV's seem to have a steeper curve than ICE's. I recently saw a 2014 with under 10,000 miles for $7,800. Granted it was an outlier and sold quickly. But for the vigilant, one can get the deal you are looking for now instead of waiting two years. Plus if you move now, that is several thousand gallons of gasoline that does not have to be burned. Not a small thing in and of itself!

I don't believe used EV's 3-4 years old or older will drop much more in price until the battery warranty periods on them is ended or ending. Personally I wouldn't buy one without that warranty in force for as long as I wanted to own the car.

On purely economic criteria you cannot loose, period. Our household with two iMievs as daily drivers (bought new at rock bottom prices) will save at least $34,000.00 in transportation expenses over 6 years of ownership. By replacing two fuel efficient ICE's with them (a Honda Fit and a Honda Civic). If you look beyond purely economic criteria it gets even better!

Aerowhatt
2014 cool silver ES, acquired new 4/2015
2014 Labrador Black Pearl ES, acquired new 3/2016

phb10186
Posts: 261
Joined: Fri May 13, 2016 12:58 am
Location: North London suburbs, UK

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:20 am

New EV demand is pretty strong now, and the rate limiting step is still in battery production, hence supply is behind demand, and new prices will remain higher for the foreseeable future compared to ICE - and I don't see a lot of change over the next 3 years - which should strengthen used EV prices if nothing else.. Pure ICE vehicles are already experiencing static or falling sales compared with PHEVs, Hybrids and Evs, which are all seeing growing sales. As far as high fuel tax markets go (specifically I reference Europe in comparison to the US here), diesel sales are particularly badly hit, as the trend moves to gasoline, gasoline hybrid and EVs.

The high year 1 depreciation is probably due to the higher new cost, and a used market equivalence to ICE equivalents, making EVs a pretty good used by in my opinion.

In large cities, especially those in western Europe, the sheer scale of mild hybrid sales (Prius in particular) is clear to see, with far more PHEVs and EV coming through year on year.

So, in some markets where fuel costs less, the uptake may lag slightly, and I also notice smaller towns have far fewer alternative fuel vehicles (likely because people have less money, and can't afford them). However, as global battery production is still the main limiting factor, the production capacity will be directed to where demand is strongest, and the highest price can be commanded.

The switch from ICE to EV is more than just a fuel change, it requires a change of understanding about use and ownership of vehicles, where, I at least would suggest that an investment in an EV should be made based on a longer term of ownership. Also, the battery ownership and replacement models have not been completely worked out, as far as I can see, and a battery replacement (whoever is paying for it), remains a costly event - and that really needs to be solved in a smarter way.

All of those forces will effect new and used prices over the next few years, but I can't see the current trends lessening - EVs are here to stay now.

The other thing I would add, is that my observations in a city like London, are that I see most people buying a small EV as a 2nd car for local driving (which ends up being used for about 90%+ journeys) - and that practice does not require a particularly large range, when a conventional car can then be used when you need to cover a larger distance.
2012 I-MIEV Keiko Silver 11K
2010 Insight ES-T 43K
2001 Accord Type-V (F23 manual)
2009 Hornet CB600F
2008 SH300

Don
Site Moderator
Posts: 2535
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 3:55 pm
Location: Biloxi MS

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Sun Jan 07, 2018 9:41 am

phb10186 wrote:The other thing I would add, is that my observations in a city like London, are that I see most people buying a small EV as a 2nd car for local driving (which ends up being used for about 90%+ journeys) - and that practice does not require a particularly large range, when a conventional car can then be used when you need to cover a larger distance.
I think this has proven true for most of us. While there are a few who own only BEV's, the vast majority of us do still own an ICE of some type for one reason or other and IMO one of the biggest benefits of having an EV or two for daily commutes is . . . . your ICE will last nearly forever, as it gets so little use. Our ICE maintenance has been cut back to an annual oil change and not much else. We will be changing tires based on their 5 year life span rather than because they're worn out

Don
2012 iMiEV SE Premium, White
2012 iMiEV SE, White
2014 Ford Transit Connect XLT SWB wagon, 14,000 miles
1994 Miata 60K miles - Soon to be sold
1979 Honda CBX six into six

jray3
Posts: 1395
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:05 am
Location: Tacoma area, WA
Contact: Website

Tire lifespan, was Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:04 pm

Don wrote:
phb10186 wrote: We will be changing tires based on their 5 year life span rather than because they're worn out
Don


I'm not finding any real definitive guide to tire aging, other than direct sunlight and hot weather being bad, as well as coastal "salt air".

Edmunds goes conservative, with a 6-10 year replacement range,
https://www.edmunds.com/car-care/how-old-and-dangerous-are-your-tires.html

Road and Track says ten years is quite doable, provided proper care and storage "out of ozone".
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/buying-maintenance/a25577/how-to-make-your-tires-last-10-years/

The only reasonable tip I found for avoiding ozone (besides a sealed bag) was to not store tires in proximity to open frame electric motors, which produce ozone...

There's conflicting info on washing tires prior to storage, with my takeway being that dirt will hurt nothing (though road salt can) and aggressive scrubbing and detergents deprive the rubber of oils that would normally migrate to the surface and protect the rubber. Nearly all sites advised against tire dressing compounds, esp. for storage...

Bottom line, inspect regularly for sidewall cracking, and any tread or shoulder penetrations can cause corrosion of the steel belting and delamination that isn't obvious until you experience tread separation. I have twice experienced full tread separation, leaving behind a still-inflated casing! Both instances were on very old tires, one was a restoration project, the other on a freshly-acquired old semi trailer. When it happened on the car I had less than a minute of warning- thup-thup-thup as the tread separation grew- of course it happened on a long interstate highway bridge...
2012 i-SE "MR BEAN" 80,000 miles
i-ES traded at 21,648 miles
2000 Honda Odyssey
1987 F250 Diesel
1983 Grumman Kurbwatt,170 kW, 32 kWh
1983 Mazda RX-7 EV 43 kW 10 kWh
1971 "Karmann Eclectric" EV 240 kW 19 kWh
1965 Karmann Ghia Cabriolet

phb10186
Posts: 261
Joined: Fri May 13, 2016 12:58 am
Location: North London suburbs, UK

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:38 pm

The front Continental tyres I have on my Imiev are '08s, and I got them as new old stock for a very low price... £40 for the pair or something. They were wrapped when I bought them shortly after I bought the car which was 4 years old, and I left them wrapped until I needed them after about 6 months. They are fine, no cracks, and hold air perfectly, but I noticed a light layer of oxidation on the side walls that was almost like an application from the factory - it cleaned off with car wash cleaner without much effort, leaving what look like as new tyres. It was sort of a slightly lighter grey/ brown to the normal rubber tyre compound.

There has been talk about limiting tyres to 10 years old max in the UK- following some truck (semi in the US vernacular) incidents - and that is likely a sensible policy for road safety - but will likely take an age to enact into law.

What I have noticed, over the last 20 or so years, is a gradual softening of tyres - prior to the IMIEV I always fitted Michellins - but where I used to get up to 25k miles in the early 90s, I now only get 15k miles or so, from what is essentially the same tyre product range - though the general performance of tyres, especially in the wet has improved hugely.

I would also assume that the compound technology has come a long way, and that age related degradation is less of an issue - but all tyres seem to end up cracking on the side walls first, which tends to track to where the wall meets the tread, as far as I have experienced. I know that road salt isnt good, and the Factory fitted Bridgestones on our Gen 2 Insight had to be replaced at 6 years, one before it reached the end of the tread life, but ive never had that issue with Michellins.

So, I suspect there is no definitive age limit, but rather multiple factors including tyre quality, environment, inflation, driving habit, car weight (and probably suspension characteristics), curb encounters and etc.

As a biker, I would not run any tyre older than 8 years of age, which has come up a few times on some other forums I frequent, but bike tyres are a different story.

I dont think during my entire driving career, I have ever had a flat tyre or any problems during a journey, worst ive had is premature side wall cracking, and of course the odd nail and slow puncture... lucky so far.

Annoyingly with the IMIEV, front/rear tyre rotation isn;t an option, but I still rotate side to side when I have the motivation to do so... I always thought that was good practice.... would have been better for all 4 wheels to be as per the rears I think.... but would likely impede on the already limited front foot-wells and worsen the turning radius.
2012 I-MIEV Keiko Silver 11K
2010 Insight ES-T 43K
2001 Accord Type-V (F23 manual)
2009 Hornet CB600F
2008 SH300

Don
Site Moderator
Posts: 2535
Joined: Thu May 10, 2012 3:55 pm
Location: Biloxi MS

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:44 pm

Several European vehicle manufacturers of high performance sports cars, coupes and sedans identify that "under no circumstances should tires older than 6 years be used" in their vehicle owner's manual. However, it should be noted that European recommendations must include driving conditions that include roads like the German Autobahn, which allows vehicles to be legally driven at their top speeds for extended periods of time.

While American driving conditions don't include the high-speed challenges of the German Autobahn, Chrysler, Ford Motor Company and General Motors have joined their European colleagues by recommending that tires installed as Original Equipment be replaced after six years of service.


The tires on my 2012's turned 6 years old this month . . . .

Don
2012 iMiEV SE Premium, White
2012 iMiEV SE, White
2014 Ford Transit Connect XLT SWB wagon, 14,000 miles
1994 Miata 60K miles - Soon to be sold
1979 Honda CBX six into six

jray3
Posts: 1395
Joined: Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:05 am
Location: Tacoma area, WA
Contact: Website

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:54 pm

Don wrote:The tires on my 2012's turned 6 years old this month . . . .
Don


I'd take 'em. I need a new summer set and they'll probably only last one more year in Jay Duty!
2012 i-SE "MR BEAN" 80,000 miles
i-ES traded at 21,648 miles
2000 Honda Odyssey
1987 F250 Diesel
1983 Grumman Kurbwatt,170 kW, 32 kWh
1983 Mazda RX-7 EV 43 kW 10 kWh
1971 "Karmann Eclectric" EV 240 kW 19 kWh
1965 Karmann Ghia Cabriolet

phb10186
Posts: 261
Joined: Fri May 13, 2016 12:58 am
Location: North London suburbs, UK

Re: EV prices in the next 3 years.

Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:20 pm

Don wrote:Several European vehicle manufacturers of high performance sports cars, coupes and sedans identify that "under no circumstances should tires older than 6 years be used" in their vehicle owner's manual. However, it should be noted that European recommendations must include driving conditions that include roads like the German Autobahn, which allows vehicles to be legally driven at their top speeds for extended periods of time.

While American driving conditions don't include the high-speed challenges of the German Autobahn, Chrysler, Ford Motor Company and General Motors have joined their European colleagues by recommending that tires installed as Original Equipment be replaced after six years of service.


Don


Makes sense if you are regularly performing warp speed, though I would suggest that this advice is lawyer/ litigator speak in some way. In Southern England, we have a 70mph limit on the highways, inferior quality road surfaces in general to the Germans, and generally higher population density and more traffic... plus having been to Germany and personally speed testing things out, most people drive at about 70mph anyway - only the occasional person driving more than 90, and very seldom are people speed testing their new Porsche. What they do have a tendency to do which really annoys me is drive about 10 feet behind one another at highway speeds for some reason... never understood that. The British don't tend to do that on the whole, and from a fair amount of time spent in the US, you guys don't do it either, as it's highly antisocial. You do however overtake on both sides in the US, which is an endorsable traffic offence in Europe (undertaking). If you know that someone won't be passing you on your inside, then you can generally take evasive action to that side, which means that your 10 year old tyres may not have to be quality tested so much.

Would be useful if tyre manufacturers could age rate their products in the same way they speed rate them, like loads of medical and chemical products are rated for a certain number of years. Without doubt a cheap tyre will become unsafe sooner than a premium one.

I remember my father and grandfather telling me stories about the 'old days' where in the 1950s-60s people would generally drive with tyres until they were so bald they were wearing through to whatever layer they had under the rubber, in the days when there were still inner tubes... no safety belts, no nothing - and other assorted practices that would generally inform a shortened life expectancy.
2012 I-MIEV Keiko Silver 11K
2010 Insight ES-T 43K
2001 Accord Type-V (F23 manual)
2009 Hornet CB600F
2008 SH300

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