Global Warming's Terrifying New Math

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JoeS

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Quite off-topic, this article, although long, seems to get the point across better than most on the subject:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

Given the absence of political will in the world, the outlook is dire. The carbon tax never happened here, and I think it's futile to expect hurting the fossil-fuel industry (by boycotts, as suggested in the article) if demand keeps rising...

At least, driving our iMiEVs, we are making a microscopically miniscule attempt at reversing the trend. :mrgreen:
 
Fully agree with your sentiments and the thrust of the article. I don't think of myself as wild eyed environmentalist, but the earth is definitely going through some type of climate change. Here in south Texas last year was an absolute disaster due to wild fires, and now fracking has become a big business here. One smal outgrowth of fracking here has been a series of small, but noticeable earthquakes, although the causal connection has not quite been made yet. The Miev helps a little.
 
I read the National Geographic cover to cover every month and have for the last 15 years. I've read about this over and over again. I actually remember hearing about it back in the early 80's when I lived in Southern California. This article clearly spells out the problems - greed and fear of change. Few want to change their habits or their standard of living to adopt to the current climatic situation. I did learn from the article why the oil companies fight so hard to keep everyone addicted to gas - they are betting their future profits against their reserves. Everthing is making sense.

All we can do is try and hopefully through our efforts we'll lead a few more people towards changing their driving habits.

I'm going to look at getting solar panels a bit more now.
 
A related discussion on whether "Buying Green" really makes a difference was in the NYTimes this week. Annie Leonard ("The Story of Stuff") basically said it's not enough. We need to have collective action and civic engagement. Products that are "Green" (the iMiev is no exception) allow us to continue our lifestyle as normal, with a slightly higher price and/or inconvenience. It's just not enough and may be counter-productive if such behavior allows us to feel like we're making a difference; but then retreat from demanding more widespread goverment, business, and society at large changes that will make a difference. Gernot Wagner touches on it in this same article (and his book "Will the Planet Notice"), and makes the best point of all: if you want to change behavior, use a financial incentive. See the discussion here: http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/07/30/responsible-shoppers-but-bad-citizens

But our political system is supremely inept at building those incentives ... because not only are taxes viewed as evil, but corporations fight anything that might make their prospects more meager with billions of dollars of bri ... uh, contributions to influence lawmakers and promote the fallacy that they will provide jobs and US growth. While the truth is that our tax and trade policies have enabled record profits for corporations, jobs are shipped overseas, and the US economic impact has been negligible. Unfortunately, I see most corporations - even those like Nissan, Mitsubishi, Tesla as part of the problem ... allowing us more affluent to feel we've done a good deed without taking more difficult steps. And those corporations don't mind since they're still getting our money.

Dan
 
There are a myriad of climate related issues that need new thinking and guidance to be sure, but here in the US where we have an abundance of clean natural gas (we're compressing it into LNG and shipping it abroad out of the port of Pascagoula as we speak) one has to wonder why we have even one coal fired power plant left in North America. The reason is the same as it is for many other major problems (like the 300,000,000 guns in this country) - Lobbyists OWN our politicians

Here's what we're up against - http://www.coalisclean.com/ "It's our God given right to burn coal" - Really? I suppose it's our right to live with the terrible consequences too, like mercury falling out of the skies on our heads

We do have a choice in November - One party has been trying to make burning coal unprofitable for the past couple decades and the other has been fighting tooth and nail to keep it. Current EPA regulations have made retrofitting older coal plants more expensive than replacing them with natural gas fired plants and more and more coal plants are closing every year. The long term outlook for coal is slowly dimming . . . . unless we elect people who will overturn the current EPA mandates. That same party defeated the bill to ban incandescent bulbs earlier this year as well

The rich get richer by cutting taxes and shipping our jobs overseas and the rest of us fail to organize - If only the poor could be convinced they need to VOTE!!

Don
 
I believe that each individuals choices can help contribute to, or
take away from the global warming phenomena that is evident.

Some people come from the camp of take all you can get.
Always some one who wants to cash in on popular events /ideas.

others

Take only as much as you need

We come from this camp
Angelika (my wife) and I chose to build our retirement home in harmony with our natural surrounding.
We live in a modest sized alternative build home. Highly insulated, designed to take advantage of passive solar gain,also
using modern day technology to minimize energy demands. But this is another story.
Yes we recycle too.
This was one choice we Made

We also chose to drive one car - the Miev - an Electric car
What were our Reasons


The Green Factor --- Absolutely
Less carbon, co2, emissions, Footprint

Economics --- Absolutely
Our previous fuel cost, usage, repairs history,
were accounted for in our choice
Anticipated fuel cost increases..etc

Substantial Government $ Grant - Huge influence

Social Responsability --- Absolutely
For our children's future evironment
To set a positive. pro active example

Driving Fun Factor ---- Absolutely
Driving the Miev is a blast
Exclusiveness of an EV,
Curious people asking questions

Convenience ---- Absolutely Not
Drive slower, often back roads
Planning longer trips incorporating charging locations
4 passenger capacity, Towing capacity
Odd time need to rent or borrow/ swap an ICE

Support EV Manufactuers - Absolutely
We want this technology here to stay
We want it to improve
We want it to Give people a choice other than an ICE vehicle

I'm sure everyone who buys/bought the I Miev have their own reasons.
OK I'll get off my soap box & sorry for any hijacks
 
Don said:
Here's what we're up against - http://www.coalisclean.com/ "It's our God given right to burn coal" - Really? I suppose it's our right to live with the terrible consequences too, like mercury falling out of the skies on our heads
Don, I also fell for this one not long ago. Click on a few of their links and you'll find that they're unmasking the coal industry. Nice spoof, but it sure made my blood boil when I first saw this site.
 
Yes Joe - All the REAL facts are posted on the website, as well as the rebuttal to all the coal industry is telling us about 'Clean Coal' . . . . the greatest oxymoron ever!

I live about 10 miles from our coal fired plant - They are scattered everywhere all along rhe Gulf Coast because it is so cheap for them to ship their fuel in using barges

Ironically, our air quality down here is excellent in every way - No sign of smog or pollutants at all. We have offshore breezes blowing in from the south 90% of the time which gives us our famous humidity . . . . and it blows the filth of our powerplants hundreds of miles inshore for folks to the north to live with - There is little push down here to shift to cleaner energy sources since coal really does seem 'clean' down here. The Southern Company which is the parent company of most of the southern electric utilities is actually in the midst of building a new $3 Billion lignite coal fired plant in central Mississippi right now, banking on an as yet unproven technology (the first such plant is under construction now in China, but has not yet generated a kwh of electricity using this new way of burning lignite) and stripping all vegetation from tens of square miles of Mississippi . . . . plus, they are asking the PSC for permission to raise the rates on customers who will never use any of that power in their area to pay for their 'experiment' - Imagine if your local milk producer was allowed raise the cost of the milk you buy just so he could build himself a new plant to lower his cost of producing milk??

My opinion - We cannot scream loud or long enough about the evils of coal . . . . especially if we drive electric cars powered by such a filthy resource - It's almost as bad for the environment as burning gasoline, except that the $$$ doesn't go to the terrorists . . . . unless you call the . . . . nevermind ;)

Don
 
A related discussion on whether "Buying Green" really makes a difference was in the NYTimes this week.

If not us, then who?

I understand what you are saying but someone has to make that step forward. Does it excuse us from trying even harder to mind our energy usage because we now have an electric car? No, it doesn't. We are going to have to keep trying and keep doing more. We are going to have to lead by example and show people that an electric car is here today and is possible and is ONE of the many steps we all can take to mind our energy usage.

I know that we are all trying on this forum. I've ready many of the postings and can hear the same things from everyone of us. That is why we are willing to use our WEALTH to try and make a better tomorrow even if no one else seems to care. Even if our neighbors or in my case my brother, thinks there is no 'global warming' and there is a 'sea of oil and gas' out there if only 'they would be allowed to drill' and it's all 'Obabama's fault' they can't drive their SUVs and haul there 3000 lb trailers wherever they want to go.

We got to think of what we are doing is like Noah building the Ark. Everyone laughed and everyone objected to building an Ark on dry land, but when the rains came, everyone knew who was right. Unfortunately, there is no getting out of this problem unless everyone is involved. We'll all sink, those that have tried and those that didn't care.
 
A related discussion on whether "Buying Green" really makes a difference was in the NYTimes this week. Annie Leonard ("The Story of Stuff") basically said it's not enough. We need to have collective action and civic engagement. Products that are "Green" (the iMiev is no exception) allow us to continue our lifestyle as normal, with a slightly higher price and/or inconvenience. It's just not enough and may be counter-productive if such behavior allows us to feel like we're making a difference; but then retreat from demanding more widespread government, business, and society at large changes that will make a difference.

Boy, do I disagree with this sentiment. By engaging in a green lifestyle and buying green products, we not only reduce carbon emissions, we set an example. When you don't personally know anyone who is dedicated to a green lifestyle, it's easy to dismiss such people as "kooks". When you know someone living that lifestyle and you know that person to be reasonable and level-headed, suddenly such people don't seem to be "kooks" anymore. But I do agree that if we quietly live a green lifestyle our impact is minimal. That's why we need to be ostentatious about the many ways we've gone green - energy efficient lighting; lowering thermostats; limiting or not using a/c; using canvass shopping bags; driving a MiEV; etc. We need to "advertise" the green lifestyle and let everyone we know understand that such a lifestyle is a small sacrifice and collectively makes a big difference. And Sandage's post makes some very important points too. When we buy "green" we encourage a green market. Thanks to us, Mitsubishi has sold hundreds of MiEV's in North America without any marketing campaign. Mitsubishi didn't come to us, we went to it. We sought and found an economical green car. Hopefully our purchases will encourage Mitsubishi to further invest in EV technology and begin a North American marketing investment as well. If it happens, it's because of us. So keep up the chatter, not just among ourselves but with everyone we know.
 
tonymil said:
... we set an example. ... That's why we need to be ostentatious about the many ways we've gone green ... We need to "advertise" the green lifestyle and let everyone we know understand that such a lifestyle is a small sacrifice and collectively makes a big difference.

I'd like to believe that what you say makes a difference ... and I'm living (like most EV drivers out there) as much in accordance with this as I can push myself and my family. But my point is that it's not enough because most people don't want to change or are not in the financial position to live the virtuous lifestyle (that VP Cheney is famous for mocking) that we all can make. We NEED financial incentives and we need them on a grand scale. For example a carbon tax or a bigger gas guzzler tax. EV incentives aren't bad, but they are puny in comparison to the other incentives in place for fossil fuels. We need to stop those: http://act.350.org/sign/end-fossil-fuel-subsidies.

Ok, I'll get off my soapbox too :) .
 
danpatgal said:
tonymil said:
... we set an example. ... That's why we need to be ostentatious about the many ways we've gone green ... We need to "advertise" the green lifestyle and let everyone we know understand that such a lifestyle is a small sacrifice and collectively makes a big difference.

I'd like to believe that what you say makes a difference ... and I'm living (like most EV drivers out there) as much in accordance with this as I can push myself and my family. But my point is that it's not enough because most people don't want to change or are not in the financial position to live the virtuous lifestyle (that VP Cheney is famous for mocking) that we all can make. We NEED financial incentives and we need them on a grand scale. For example a carbon tax or a bigger gas guzzler tax. EV incentives aren't bad, but they are puny in comparison to the other incentives in place for fossil fuels. We need to stop those: http://act.350.org/sign/end-fossil-fuel-subsidies.

Ok, I'll get off my soapbox too :) .
I dunno. I might disagree with you. Why should the government give relatively well-off consumers - well-off enough to buy a new car-, an incentive? The only reason I can think of is that it would make the country less dependent on foreign oil, and all the bad things that go along with that. Our soldiers are risking their lives to protect our oil interests...not a good thing.

That being said, I will take my $7500 this year.
 
Another harbinger film of a bleak future. This came out in 2009 but I just got around to watching it, but this film definitely sums up my feelings and thoughts about the current situation.

For me, its a moral imperitive to live as conservatively as I can. There just too much suffering in a gallon of gasoline. Part of the reason I sold my motorcycle, I just couldn't get over the fact that I was recreating on someone else's plight.


The Age of Stupid.

http://www.bing.com/movies/search/o...n,+DC&latlon=38.884674~-77.015312&FORM=DTPSHA
 
New research says we have five years before global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C is unstoppable. That assumes zero increase of Co2 over said period.

Are we ready for 2 billion climate refugees let alone the couple of million Syrians ? And the world is still asleep at the wheel.

Dave
 
Phximiev said:
Not fun outside tho; “heat wave”: https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/death-valley-120-degree-heat

On one side, we are too late such as: “The Sixth Extinction” by Elizabeth Kolbert.

On the other side: we’re not: "The Meaning of Human Existence" by Edward O. Wilson.

All I can say is that it looks to me like we are burning up the planet and that we better hurry up with the CO2 reductions.

:mrgreen:

Quoted from this topic: http://myimiev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=1969&p=28227&hilit=Sixth+extinction#p28227

All I can say is that hopefully Wilson is more accurate.
 
(dniemeyer99, I think you win for reviving the oldest thread :lol:. It was getting quiet on here.)

I've really been keeping an eye on daily CO2 readings from Mauna Loa (http://co2.earth). For having first passed the 400 ppm mark in March of 2013, this year looks to be the first year spent ENTIRELY above 400 ppm :cry: with no signs of slowing down (the rate of increase is actually still climbing).

The world gains 1,000 people every 6.5 minutes, US birth rate is almost double the death rate, netting one additional person in the US every 11 seconds (with immigration). Trump's promising to bring coal back (though natural gas is too far developed for coal to overtake at this point) while likely stacking the cards hard against renewables. Even if the Model 3, Bolt, and LEAF 2 all sell 500,000 units a year, there are 253 million gassers on the road in the US. At these rates, it'll take 170 years to replace all the gas cars with EVs (actually not too bad for just 3 models, but almost useless in the short term).

This summer has been a killer with the heat. Two months in a row (just got the latest bill yesterday), we've used MORE energy than the solar array generated, and nearly all of it going to cooling. For having never before used more than 1,300-1,400 kWhs in a month, we passed 1,800 kWhs in August. When we first moved into our house in 2000, we didn't have or need A/C for the first two years. If it went above 80 F, it usually rained that afternoon and cooled it back down. Now, we'll hit the upper 90's without a cloud even forming. If this is the new normal, the solar array just halved its payback period.

Yet, life stumbles on, completely blind and ignorant to the cliff we're heading towards.
 
Having read various predictions about autonomous vehicles, and continuing urbanisation, I have come to the conclusion that the EV story is a blip for human operated vehicles. The real gains are in automation, as that is where EV become the preference to both manufacturer and consumer where currently they are not. A whole bunch of robotic lawnmower looking cars everywhere that return to base for a charge or fault, and the occupant simply moves to a new vehicle. It would be a shame to not be able to drive any more, but it's one of the lesser emergent challenges we face. As far as driving in London - I would positively welcome it instead of 2 hours of stress commuting each day. As far as a break on the weekends go, yup I would miss it a lot, especially if i cant get in a car immediately for an unlimited time. Unfortunately, with the autonomous vehicle model, there is going to be some huge corporation with a monopoly overcharging everyone and giving a poor service - so assurances would be needed to overcome the lack of trust, and ensure service and costs are better than current baselines.

I wonder what the break even mileage for true carbon neutrality is for an I-MIEV?

My guess with all those batteries in them is that it would be a fairly large number.


If this number is large, then for drivers who do a fairly low annual mileage (like me), it may actually not be helping the macro environment compared to me keeping my 14 year old Celica.

I suspect that this is a very complex calculation, since it would be dependent on the source of electricity used to power the EV, and the onward sale on my previous ICE car Vs what they used to have - because if I go eco, then I am just passing on my old car to someone else.

As a consumer, I can only look at the fact that everything else staying the same - I am displacing one ICE car with the purchase of an EV - but I have difficulty in convincing myself that that the overall dynamic is that simple.
 
Though there is no research behind this post, I've always been under the impression that battery manufacturing has less impact than ICE manufacturing. Think about how many pieces make up a 4-cylinder engine. There is different machinery and process required to manufacture each component. However, one assembly line can churn out batteries. Another can make bus bars, and two others can make circuit boards and battery cases. On pure machine overhead, a battery has less than an ICE. The same could be said for a transmission vs. the electric motor and gearbox.

Manufacturing the i-MiEV is likely less resource intensive compared to other vehicles due to its weight. Ever notice how light the doors are compared to other cars?

Even if manufacturing an EV is worse environmentally (which I'm convinced it's not), the fuel and maintenance overhead of the ICE makes short work of making up the difference. Still, the large hit of manufacturing and power modern automobiles makes a very compelling case for Light EVs such as the Organic Transit ELF, various eBikes, and electric motorcycles. Raw resource consumption is just as important as how we power society.
 
PV1 said:
Though there is no research behind this post, I've always been under the impression that battery manufacturing has less impact than ICE manufacturing. Think about how many pieces make up a 4-cylinder engine. There is different machinery and process required to manufacture each component. However, one assembly line can churn out batteries. Another can make bus bars, and two others can make circuit boards and battery cases. On pure machine overhead, a battery has less than an ICE. The same could be said for a transmission vs. the electric motor and gearbox.

Manufacturing the i-MiEV is likely less resource intensive compared to other vehicles due to its weight. Ever notice how light the doors are compared to other cars?

Even if manufacturing an EV is worse environmentally (which I'm convinced it's not), the fuel and maintenance overhead of the ICE makes short work of making up the difference. Still, the large hit of manufacturing and power modern automobiles makes a very compelling case for Light EVs such as the Organic Transit ELF, various eBikes, and electric motorcycles. Raw resource consumption is just as important as how we power society.


Unsure, as the economies of scale for ICE are so large, vs so small for EVs. But I'd like to believe it.

Not sure how much energy goes in to battery production... it may be a case that it's actually very large, but not as much as you might imagine.

It brings me back to the argument I've been banging on about for yonks, which is if your EV car is junk, then have it so the battery can be reused elsewhere. Similarly if your battery is toast, make it simple to replace.

To do that you would need small component battery modules that are accessible... maybe like an array of lithium power tool batteries or something... that lends to far greater environmental gains.

The EVS of today lack that and have batteries that are under 10 layers of plastic and metal and weigh a tonne. They are also intentionally priced beyond the boundaries of sensible replaent.

The YouTube video on the Imiev production stated the pack was 50% of the cost of the car... i'd go with that, but it implies a very high cost of production, which may point to high amounts of energy needed to produce... possibly?
 
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