dniemeyer99
Posts: 55
Joined: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:08 am
Location: Sudbury, Ontario Canada

Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:28 pm

Here is another expert saying thing are changing and will be changing fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k


If this is true, we will be needing a lot of quick charging station in about 7-8 years.

Dave

databeestje
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:47 am
Location: Netherlands

Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:23 am

Not so sure about the quick charge stations, as long as I work 8 hours a day the 3kW charger is fine. Although I agree we need those along the highways.

As someone else in the topic noticed, it is that people look at this car design specifically as something odd, not the electric part perse.

If this car came in the shape of a Peugeot 207 SW or Renault Clio Break I'd have that in an instant. They are large enough and quite practical too. The problem is that they don't exist, and don't even get started on the 2nd hand market.

I mean the Zoe is nice, but if they made it a lenghtend 5 door "estate" model like the Clio it would be so much more useful. (Having just become a father and seeing what needs dragging around).

For the short forseeable future I don't think there are many options, they cars just aren't being made.

Others on the road have also mistaken my car for being a disabled people mobile (limited to 45kph) and felt the need to overtake me with 90kph regardless eventhough I was already doing 70 kph where 60kph was allowed. I think the car' relative narrow width is one of the primary reasons for this mistaken identity.

JoeS
Site Moderator
Posts: 3909
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2011 5:47 am
Location: Silicon Valley, California

Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:39 am

databeestje, how a vehicle looks is certainly a factor as individual perspectives vary all over the map. Some of us like quirky, yet there are already a few 'conventional' offerings out there (e.g., VW e-Golf). BTW, you might consider updating your Profile (in User Control Panel) to show your location.

Living in an area where it's not unusual to be stopped at a traffic light surrounded by Teslas, Leafs, i3s, 500e, etc., it was a shock during my recent trip to New Caledonia and Australia to see absolutely NO BEVs on the road. NewCal, especially, would seem to be ideal for BEVs as they simply have nowhere far to drive.

The sad realization sank in that without an external impetus the world isn't going to change. Doing the math with individuals in a mostly innumerate society is way too slow, and appealing on the basis of either personal or climate health doesn't resonate with half the population in the US.

Personally, having driven mostly very efficient vehicles, I've always been an advocate of very high fuel taxes - now, of course, even more so (especially NOW, with the price of gasoline so low!). As I see it, a carbon tax on everything could make a serious dent and steer people towards BEVs - but there is no political will…

Responding to the thread topic, I'm hopeful but pessimistic. If the upcoming autonomous vehicles will be mostly BEVs, there's a chance (if regulatory (and political?) hurdles can be quickly overcome).

So, I'll just continue my one-man crusade loaning out my i-MiEV, as everyone I've loaned it to has become a BEV convert…
EVs: 2 Wht/Blu SE Prem., '13 Tesla MS85, 3 156v CorbinSparrows (2 Li-ion), 24v EcoScoot(LiFePO4)
EV Conv: 156v '86 Ram PU, 144v '65 Saab 96
Hybrids: 48v1kW bike
ICE: '88 Isuzu Trooper. Mothballed: '67 Saab (orig.owner), '76 MBZ L206D RHD RV

databeestje
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:47 am
Location: Netherlands

Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:30 am

That was a good tip, I've updated my profile. I considered the Nissan Leaf 2nd hand too, most that came off lease after 3 years are 15k euro, that's a pretty hefty depriciation though. My i from 2010 was still 10k euro though, a pretty hefty price for a 2nd hand car still, the Peugeot 206 SW 2.0 HDI diesel I traded in was only good for about 2250.

The good news is, the battery broke in the 1st week I drove the i and after 2 months I now have a new battery, I really can't complain. :)

I purchased the i purely by doing math. For driving 20k km a year (~12k mi) the diesel cost me 2700 euro a year on diesel, road taxes and insurance, the next option I considered was a Toyota Aygo/Citroen C1/Peugeot 108 which was 1800 a year, and after that came the i with 850 euro a year.

You see, the diesels in the netherlands have pretty hefty road taxes (85 euros a month), the aygo which is considerably smaller over the Peugeot 206 SW is still 32 euros a month, but electric is road tax free up to 2020.

I can relate to the math though, and it's a sorry state regardless of where you live, it doesn't appear to matter anymore. And it's not just the math, but also the spoken and written language. I cringe whenever I read the comments on a common car website, it's positively horrific. Having been to the US I can tell you that for all intents I found Louisville Kentucky to be very much alike the Netherlands. And speaking with the Americans a lot of similar topics come up, except guns, we really don't have much of those, although people occasionaly get shot.

Math Example: I have solar panels as well, and people mock me for that too. We have this great tax rule in the Netherlands where you can deduct your PV generation from your consumption 1 for 1. That's 21 cents per kWh. And with 2100kWh a year I effectively reduce my bill with 441 euros a year. That means that for the 4k euro investment I get quite the interest in that regard, compared to currently 0,75% for my savings account at the bank. It's a no brainer, 1 summer month (300kWh) makes me more money then the bank account in a year.

The current fuel and diesel prices in the Netherlands have always been quite high compared to the US, it's approx 7 dollars per gallon here. But somehow that never really filtered through into car choice much. Quite a lot of smaller cars compared to the US, but there is a substantial amount of 2nd car families.

There have been a few attempts at stimulating fuel efficieny, but all have been targeted at the company car lease drivers. The fuel efficient cars got a far lower income tax compared to the other company lease cars. It used to be 7% for the plugin hybrids, leading to a lot of Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV sales.

For 2016 the plugin category is going up to 15% and 22% there after, the same for the normal petrol and diesel cars. Only all electric will still be heavily subsidized at 4%. This construction has led to a really awkward 2nd hand market though, as it drives over 3 quarters of all the car sales in the Netherlands. So now you have huge amount of 2nd hand VAG group 1.2TDI diesels in the form of Seat/VW/Skoda which no one in particular wants, but had the really low tax for the corporate lease drivers.

A similar story for the original hybrids, a huge Toyota Prius selection, because it had a 7% income tax over the purchase price of the car.

For the coming years it's become a lot simpler though, it's either 0g CO2/km or everything else. I'm pretty sure the effect of that will be far more effective then the previous political agenda.

One of the most common arguments I use against nay sayers that quote the battery production as "polluting" is the following. "You are suggesting that burning the oil we pumped out of the ground just last week is better then building a battery that is used for 5-10 years, sure, why not"

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