dniemeyer99
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How long will it be before electric cars will be the norm

Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:04 pm

Just read the article below.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/motoring/201 ... rm-by-2026

Just wondering if the people that actually drive electric believe that 10 years will be needed before more electric cars will be sold than ICE cars.

I question the 10 years because of the slow adoption of car companies to embrace this technology. To many people have a large investment in the oil industry and let's say even 10% of the car were electric, what would happen to the price of oil than.

Any thoughts from the forum members ?

Dave

Don
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:05 pm

It may come true in places like Britain where you could drive from any place to any other place on one charge

I'm not so sure EV's will ever outsell ICE cars here in North America. For one, we occasionally like to hop in the car and drive 7 or 800 miles per day for 3 or 4 days straight and nothing does that like an ICE with 150,000+ refueling stations to pick from.

I think a bigger bet here would be to say that in 20 years we'll have more natural gas powered vehicles than gasoline powered ones. It's clean burning, we have a glut of it, it's cheap and the car goes a long way without needing a refueling stop

Don
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PV1
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:28 pm

Too long.

Don, don't forget the rate of improvement in EVs and battery tech. We are still in the first generation of the modern EV powered by lithium ion. Our i-MiEVs are using cells developed before 2010. If we would repack our battery with modern 18650 cells, our cars would probably have nearly a 200 mile range. The cells I selected for a booster pack will net me an extra 30 Ah for less than 110 lbs. and be able to fit in the back of the car without impacting cargo capacity (replaces the foam floor in the back).

For the improvements that will be realized with the completion of the Gigafactory and release of the Model 3 and Bolt, prices on cells should have a considerable drop while capacity continues to improve. A 500-mile Model S may not be that far off. The current model has already been taken across country in 57 hours, and that was a 2,600 mile trip. At an average speed of 45 mph for the trip, that is astounding. People can jump in their Tesla right now and simply hit the road for a day.

I don't think natural gas prices will stay low, especially with all the talk of exporting it. The wells in my area are already seeing decreases in production, making these companies scramble to crack every piece of the shale and retrieve the gas. Add a few hundred thousand NGVs in the mix, and suddenly natural gas is much more expensive than gasoline.
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Mart
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:27 pm

The last I had seen, the average age of a car on the road was about 11 years. For every new car or two sold, there's a 20 year old Honda Civic or 30 year old Olds 88 crawling around. That means a 20 year generational turnover. I would say we might see more electrics sold than ICE in another 20 years, but it will take another 20 beyond that to become the norm on the road.

On the other hand, look at how many gas stations went out of business with the 10% drop in sales from the Great Recession.

One blogger had suggested an odd scenario:
1. As more electric vehicles appear, most will charge at night. This allows utility companies to sell more baseload power without increasing their generation costs. As publicly regulated monopolies, their profits would rise without their costs increasing, and they would be forced to lower their revenue by reducing rates.
2. As the number of ICE vehicles on the roads decreases, there will be a glut in supply of gasoline. Low demand and high supply intersect at lower prices. Driving electric will lower gas prices. If you don't believe that, look at what increasing efficiency is doing now.

Win-win for the consumer, not so great for major petroleum producers, though Rex Tillerson has repeatedly noted Exxon has more value in methane than in petroleum.

I think Don is right in that regard -- natural gas will likely start displacing gasoline and diesel in hybrids and heavy trucks by mid-century. Fuel cells running indirectly off of methane might never take off, but if they do, it's another boost for methane. Since fuel cells produce electricity, electric components such as inverters and motors get double research. Autonomous driving will further reduce the amount of vehicles owned.

Weaning the military off of petroleum will be harder, where fuel for turbines in fighter jets, smaller ships, and tanks is measured by the pound, rather than the gallon.

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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:23 am

I believe the answer is simple. EVs will outsell ICEs when prices will be equal and range will reach let's say 200 miles. Even today there is no real technical reason for so high prices of nowadays EVs. All depends on the political and corporative will and decisions.
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rgalvinmi
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:18 am

NEVER in the USA.....I get more strange looks, people LAUGHING and even people giving me "thumbs down". I live in a town of 30,000 and they have NEVER seen an EV car before....that is OBVIOUS from their expressions EVERY SINGLE day since I have owned this I-miev. Of course I live in the "MOTOR CITY" state of the USA, so people here are very OLD FASHIONED and set in their ways.

Americans are wasteful and do not care. The ONLY way, I believe we would ever even see 10% of autos as EV....is "IF" gas hit $7-10.00 PER gallon.......that is what I think it would take to get EV sales at even 10 percent. My .02

Bob in Michigan.

Don
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Oct 24, 2015 11:34 am

PV1 wrote:A 500-mile Model S may not be that far off. The current model has already been taken across country in 57 hours, and that was a 2,600 mile trip. At an average speed of 45 mph for the trip, that is astounding. People can jump in their Tesla right now and simply hit the road for a day.
Yes, so long as they plan their route where they have access to the Supercharger network - There will never be 150,000 plus EV refueling stations to match the gas stations we now have for ICE's. You can refuel anywhere and anytime you like . . . . no waiting in line and no planning your route based on where and when you can recharge. We have over 250 million registered vehicles in the USA - Can you picture the long lines to recharge if even half of those were all electric?? Driving your Tesla from coast to coast might take a week!!

What I would really *like* to see is a switch to hydrogen fueled vehicles, like they are testing in Iceland. They have a surplus of geothermal generated electricity which they are using to produce the hydrogen. Hydrogen seems like the ultimate fuel to me

I have always wondered why we don't have more geothermal generated electricity here in the USA. It seems it would be very practical to do around the outskirts of Yellowstone, but I don't think a single plant has ever been built. One is only left to wonder why?

Don
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ed5000
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:55 pm

Don wrote:
PV1 wrote:There will never be 150,000 plus EV refueling stations to match the gas stations we now have for ICE's.

But on the other hand, "Every electrified structure is a potential EV charging station". That could be 150,000 right there. 8-)
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fjpod
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sun Oct 25, 2015 3:05 am

Or. ... Gas Station owners could make a small investment and gradually install a few fast chargers. They would sell more Big Slurpees, cigarettes, and Lotto tickets. Voila. Instant ev charging network., in convenient locations.

PV1
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Re: How long will it be before electric cars will be the nor

Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:40 am

Sheetz gas stations in PA have 3 quick chargers that enable a LEAF to drive from Pittsburgh to State College, placed along the shortest/quickest route. They're close enough for i-MiEVs to use during the summer. They also have a few other ones installed further east, two of which are in Harrisburg.

This goes back to my thread about gen2 EV charging. All cars should come with a 20 kW on-board charger if their range is better than 120 miles or a 10 kW charger if less than 120 miles. From now on, any new J1772 station installed should be an 80 amp unit, the same output power as the Tesla HPWC and the max current available under J1772 AC spec. Regardless of quick charging, this would reduce the large gap in charge times between DCQC and L2. DCQC should definitely be placed at intermodal rest areas, convenience stores, and other visitor attractions that keep people busy for an hour or less (scenic overlooks/picnic spots in the mountain states), 80 amp L2 at restaurants, hotels, and other longer layover waypoints/destinations.

Don wrote:Yes, so long as they plan their route where they have access to the Supercharger network

Besides the Tesla nav system doing this automatically, the major routes across country (I-70 for example) are already covered. Granted there are states like Arkansas, North Dakota, West Virginia, west Texas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Wyoming that have little or no Supercharging, they will be getting them within the next two years (Tesla website has them listed under 2016, but I'm leaving a little breathing room).

I have mixed feelings about Hydrogen. I don't see it as an efficient fuel for vehicles since it basically is an inefficient energy storage medium that has losses during generation, storage, and use. It would make a viable alternative to natural gas if produced from excess grid power at night (preferably in place of or helping pumped storage hydro) for heating buildings and water.

(Ed, you have Don's statement misquoted as mine. If you decide to edit, remote the quote brackets with PV1 in them, as well as one of the [/quote] brackets at the end.)
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